The Exit Polls, The Emotions And The Learnings

My heart goes out to Pradeep Gupta, MD of Axis My India, who broke down on national TV. I had the privilege of working with him during my tenure as the Strategic Advisor to the Mathrubhumi group when we conducted exit polls in Kerala during the last assembly elections. His predictions initially met with skepticism and trolling, were ultimately validated when the results came in. MB News was the only channel that got the predictions exactly right.

What Went Wrong And The Way Forward

During the FIFA World Cup finals, AI predictions failed due to unquantifiable factors like player moods and crowd reactions. Similarly, pre-election sentiment led many, including me, to believe in an easy win for the ruling regime. However, informal chats with cab and rickshaw drivers revealed a different story, contradicting the social media buzz and exit polls.

Garbage In, Garbage Out

The quality of inputs determines the quality of outputs. This election featured a determined opposition and a confident ruling regime. Questions arise about the accuracy of sample selection, interviewer training, and adaptive interview styles.

Research often validates hypotheses rather than exploring reality. This is common in advertising too, where  data might be used to sell a TVC regardless of actual outcomes. Accurate data collection processes are crucial. Did respondents coming out of polling stations tell the truth? Were there environmental factors missed in the rush to complete headcounts?

Adapt Or Perish

During my days at Initiative Media (Lintas), we practised ‘see for ourselves’, visiting markets to gain first-hand insights. FMCG companies had immersion programs to understand genuine consumer behaviours. Today, media planners often rely on computer-generated plans, losing touch with real market dynamics. Immersing oneself in the real environment yields invaluable insights, bridging the gap between theoretical data and practical realities.

Half Full Or Half Empty

Post the hygiene related news, quick commerce will face scrutiny, yet convenience will still appeal to many. Is there an underlying truth here, in the middle of both, that most people will start getting accustomed to checking the expiry date of the packs? Research agencies should also consider open-ended surveys and discussions to avoid bias. This approach can enhance data reliability and relevance.

Disruptions All-around

Even consulting companies that preached disruption are now feeling its heat. Advisory services need to adapt, listening to all sides and seeking deep-rooted insights to guide clients with conviction and necessary course corrections.

Accept And Change

Pradeep showed courage by admitting his mistake publicly. While all pollsters misread public sentiment, I am confident he will improve his methods. Similarly, media agencies should ensure recommendations are based on real interactions with media owners and consumers, especially in non-urban markets.

Moving Forward

This experience underscores the need for humility, continuous learning, and adaptability. Combining data with on-the-ground insights ensures strategies are contextually relevant. This approach can enhance credibility and success.

Broader Implications

The lessons extend beyond polling and advertising. They highlight leadership, accountability, and resilience. Pradeep’s public acknowledgement fosters trust and respect. Integrating data analytics with human insights will be key in navigating an ever-changing landscape, ensuring deeper connections with audiences.

Yesudas Pillai

Guest Author Yesudas Pillai is Founder Y&A Transformation Pvt Ltd