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GroupM's 2024 global midyear report predicts that global advertising revenue will grow by 7.8 per cent, reaching $989.8 billion in 2024. The report also forecasts that the ad industry will surpass one trillion dollars in revenue by 2025, achieving a 6.8 per cent increase to $1.1 trillion, a year earlier than previously projected in December 2023.
The USA and China are identified as the primary growth drivers, accounting for 57.1 per cent of global ad revenue. These two countries are expected to add $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding U.S. political spending), nearly 1.5 times the combined $27.4 billion increase from all other markets.
Additionally, the USA and China host 22 of the top 25 global media sellers and represent over 40 per cent of global GDP.
India is among the top 10 global markets, with an estimated growth of 9.5 per cent in 2024, projecting a total ad revenue of $18.5 billion. The growth rate for 2025 is expected to be around 8.7 per cent. Political advertising in India contributes an estimated 0.9 per cent to the total ad revenue.
“The marketing ecosystem over the next few years will face potential impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world — impacts that have the potential to upend forecasts and alter even the most sound projections. On top of that, such projections can be skewed by two major players, China and the U.S. Their governments and their major companies have the power to shape vast aspects of the global economy,” the report stated.
Additionally, “artificial intelligence also has the potential to reshape the industry — as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles,” said the report.
Digital pure-play advertising (excluding the digital extensions of TV, audio, print, and OOH) is projected to grow by 10 per cent in 2024, making up 70.6 per cent of total advertising revenue for the year, amounting to $699 billion.
According to GroupM, search advertising revenue is expected to grow by 5.3 per cent in 2024 and by 6.3 per cent in 2025. Search will constitute 20.9 per cent of the total ad revenue, a figure anticipated to remain stable over the next five years.
Retail media continues to be the fastest-growing segment of digital advertising, with a forecasted increase of 17.5 per cent in 2024 and 13.5 per cent in 2025. The growth is driven by retailers leveraging their customer data and advertisers being attracted by closed-loop attribution and the potential to closely link media spending to sales.
The report predicts that global audio advertising revenue will reach $27.0 billion in 2024, an increase of 0.8 per cent over 2023. Growth in this sector is expected to hover around 1 per cent annually over the next three years, primarily fueled by gains in digital audio. This growth will add nearly three billion dollars, increasing from an estimated $7.9 billion in 2024 to $10.6 billion by 2029.
Total TV advertising, which includes both linear (traditional) TV and CTV, is expected to grow by 2.7 per cent to $163.2 billion in 2024, following a 0.4 per cent decline in 2023.
In 2024, OOH advertising is projected to reach $49.7 billion, with digital OOH accounting for 41 per cent ($20.4 billion) of this total. This represents an 11.5 per cent increase over 2023 for overall OOH advertising. Notably, China will account for more than half (54.6 per cent) of global DOOH revenue in 2024.
Global newspaper ad revenue is expected to decline by 2.2 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2024, with an additional 1 per cent decline anticipated in 2025. Magazine ad revenue is forecasted to be $17.5 billion in 2024, making up 1.8 per cent of global ad revenue. This represents a decrease of 4.4 per cent from 2023, with a further decline of 4.7 per cent expected in 2025.
Cinema ad revenue is expected to reduce from the 13.3 per cent growth of 2023 to 7.1 per cent in 2024, reaching a total of $2.3 billion globally.
The report mentioned, “Growth is forecast to continue decelerating through 2029 when the channel will still not have surpassed the levels of a decade earlier.”
"With increased globalisation - of financial systems, commerce, and media - can come a level of resilience as interconnected systems such as coral reefs tend to be very adept at recovering from multitudinous small shocks. Innovation, the exchange of ideas, and a shared goal to make the advertising industry work better for everyone will help ensure a bright future," the report added.
