D2C SVOD subscribers To Reach 193M By 2026: MPA
Subscription Video on Demand (SVoD) services in India are expected to continue their growth momentum with total D2C SVOD subscribers expected to increase 1.6X to reach 89 million by end-2021, according to Media Partners Asia's (MPA) 'The Future of India’s Online Video Market' report. MPA forecasts D2C SVOD subs will grow to 193 million by 2026.
It further stated that Disney+ Hotstar, Amazon Prime Video and Netflix will have an 80% market share of subscribers and revenues by the end-2021. Disney+ Hotstar will continue to lead in paying customers with an estimated 46 million subs by the end-December 2021. Despite content supply bottlenecks new OTT SVOD subscriptions continue to remain strong, the report said.
According to MPA, Disney+ Hotstar’s recent price hike of 25% on its base plan is justified given the value of its upcoming slate of premium sport and local original content. Restrictions on device access could create friction for consumers though pricing power will improve after 2022.
Amazon Prime Video's subscriber base stood at 18 million in June 2021 and is projected to reach 21.8 million by December 2021. Netflix's subscriber base is expected to grow from 4.6 million in June to 5.5 million in December. The American video streaming giants are also making heavy investments into original content to increase their subscriber base. Amazon Prime Video is making a big push into regional content while Netflix has lined up 41 originals in 2021.
The report stated that more Indians subscribed to SVOD services through the pandemic than ever before with total subscribers reaching 57 million by 2020. The SVOD subscriber base registered a 2.5X growth in 2020 over 23.2 million subscribers in 2019.
Among other key trends, the report said that the pay-TV subscriber growth is saturating with DTH expanding the market amid structural decline on the cable side. In 2020, the cable versus DTH share was in a 54:46 ratio. This is expected to change in 2020 with DTH's share expected to grow to 47% while the cable universe might see a decline from 54% to 52%.
Television will drive growth in advertising while SVOD will expand the video subscription pie, the report said. Pay-TV ad and subscription revenues are projected to be $6.1 billion and $7.6 billion respectively by 2026. The collective Pay-TV ad ($3.3 billion) and subscription revenues ($6.4 billion) are projected at $9.7 billion in 2021.
SVOD revenues are expected to grow from $800 million in 2021 to $1.8 billion+ by 2026. The OTT AVOD revenue is projected to touch $2.4 billion in 2026 from $1.1 billion. Key players continue to invest in local content while leveraging sports, movies and aggressive consumer pricing to drive growth.
The OTT industry is expected to invest US$1 billion in content in 2021. Acquired & commissioned local originals account for 30% of this pie; this share will increase to 40-45% in the future. The battle for premium cricket rights will begin afresh in 2022 starting with IPL. MPA expects Disney, Amazon, Facebook, Jio and Sony to be jockeying for pole position.
New D2C SVOD global entrants in the market from 2022 onwards include potential services from HBO and Comcast while we expect further recalibration to drive growth at Sony and Zee.
India will have 1B Video screens by 2024 with 85% broadband ready. This includes 47 million FTA and 121 pay-TV homes besides 13 million hybrid set-top boxes (STBs). 4G and 5G will have 744 million and 155 million subscribers respectively.
In 2021, the FTA and pay-TV homes are expected to reach 43 million and 127 million respectively. The market will have 2 million hybrid STBs. The 2G subscriber is projected at 11 million while 4G is expected to touch a base of 665 million.
