Unraveling The Dynamics Shaping 2024

Niranjan Gidwani Jan 12, 2024

Since I have created a few hours of spare time each day to hone up my learning and development skills, I decided to write 'Random Thoughts" every few weeks. This particular blog will cover various topics related to new trends that I have been reading, noticing, picking up online as well as in my deeper study of topics that interest me.

Here is the first 'Random Thoughts' of 2024.

As I have been involved in the area of supporting an online B2B platform, I decided to study what's happening in the most advanced market in this area ie USA. It is interesting to note that more and more of millennials and Gen Z are becoming B2B buyers and decision-makers. B2B content does not necessarily have to be relegated to professional platforms like Linkedin. TikTok could turn out to be a great platform for experimenting with B2B. Interesting statistics show that TikTok could have up to 85 million adult users in 2024. The future of B2B marketing is social. A large number of US B2B marketers say it contributes in a major way to achieving key goals. While most of the focus in ecommerce is on marketplaces, B2B ecommerce has grown tremendously in the past half-decade. However, their growth will be dependent on capital access, which I believe should improve in 2024.

One is also noticing that consumers have to start paying more for streaming services, deliveries and mobility. Over the past few months, one notices that fees are being tacked on to every order under various names such as handling charges, service fees, packaging charges. Same is happening on the mobility side as well. Essentially, the discounts and rebates that were used to grow the user base have given way to the most active users paying a small fee per transaction, or sometimes even for basic services like no cancellations. I guess one could expect OTT hikes also coming.

Corporate governance issues continue to create problems in the most exciting and fastest-growing area - the world of startups. This probably is the weakest link. There is a growing concern that a lot of issues have been swept under the rug, and the reshuffle at some key VC firms may likely unearth many more cases where founders are hit by fraud allegations. This, in effect, erodes trust. One does hope that the newer cities in this region which are aiming to take the top spot in the world of startups take cognisance of this issue.

It is very interesting to see what has happened to Amazon's aggregator brand Thrasio. The company had been focusing on acquiring, optimizing, and scaling Amazon FBA brands in the past few years and quickly became the largest Amazon aggregator in the space. I have been following Thrasio for several months as I thought it to be a great concept. However, while they hastily acquired brands during the first few years, a lot of these brands were overvalued and underperformed. Since Thrasio was a rising star in their industry, people are going to start being more hesitant in working with Amazon aggregators to supercharge their brand and sales.

Category-specific ecommerce marketplaces or vertical marketplaces have made significant strides over the past couple of years with some even achieving profitability. This is good news at a time when horizontal marketplaces like Amazon and Flipkart are yet to reach profitability despite a majority share in the industry.

On the topic of sustainability and EVs, more than half of the electric vehicles on roads worldwide are found in China. In 2022, new EV sales in China grew by 82 per cent, and the country provided 35% of global EV exports. A very interesting bit of information that can be shared here is that not many are aware that BYD began pushing the boundaries of battery technology as early as 2009. BYD featured electric buses as its entry product into North American markets. It first sold electric buses as fleet vehicles in 2013, before supplying them to the Los Angeles Metro system in 2015. BYD electric buses are now also prevalent in South American markets. EVs equipped with the best battery technology can run for up to eight hours in the inner cities. In China, taxi companies operating electric or hybrid vehicles typically have two fleets of cars — one for morning and one for evening shifts. The morning shift ends around 6–7 p.m., after the workday but before the evening rush. This enables the morning fleet to be charged after 8 p.m., avoiding the window of heavy industrial power consumption. The evening fleet returns for charging around 2–3 a.m., which is also within the period of lower power consumption for a city’s grid. That is a solution-based approach rather than a charging-based approach.

Coming to the world of mobiles, The buzz over generative is adding some fuel to hopes of a smartphone recovery, though one cannot expect the impact to be immediate. Counterpoint forecasts that generative AI-capable smartphones will account for about 8 per cent of all

handset shipments for 2024. The prediction is that the penetration rate could reach 40% by 2027. According to IDC, the above 800 dollar segment accounts for 54 per cent of the US smartphone market by value. This trend is likely to continue. The premium smartphones market will remain robust even in this region.

To conclude, there is this growing debate about AI. My take is that slowing down AI development won’t necessarily solve human apprehensions or insecurities. The rapid advancement of AI is an inevitable aspect of technological progress. Attempting to halt it may impede potential benefits. Concerns must be addressed through a dedicatedly sharper focus on ethics, governance, and education.