Tata AIG General Insurance Company and Dun & Bradstreet India have released the 'Horizon Watch Emerging Risk Report', a joint research effort that identifies and analyses the key risks Indian businesses will encounter over the next five years. The report draws insights from a comprehensive survey of 300 business leaders across 25 sectors including IT & ITeS, chemicals & pharmaceuticals, auto and auto-ancillary and financial services among others.
The findings reveal a rapidly evolving risk landscape where advancements in technology, geopolitical tensions, legal challenges and other factors are prompting companies to reevaluate their risk management and business continuity strategies. According to the report, 83 per cent of businesses view technological advancements as the primary source of new risks while 69 per cent are concerned about legal issues and 67 per cent face heightened regulatory pressures around data privacy and environmental risks. Additionally, 63 per cent of respondents anticipate that international conflicts will significantly affect their operations.
The report reveals that technology advancements are a dominant concern with 83 per cent of respondents identifying them as a primary risk factor. These advancements raise challenges around data privacy, security vulnerabilities and compliance with rapidly evolving regulations, making technology both an asset and a liability in the risk landscape.
Legal challenges are also top of mind, with 69 per cent of businesses pointing to the growing complexity of the regulatory environment as a key contributor to emerging risks. As legal requirements become more intricate, companies are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of legal disputes on their operations and long-term strategies.
Regulatory risks, especially those around data privacy and protection were highlighted by 67 per cent of businesses as critical areas of concern. Environmental regulations and compliance requirements are also rising, creating additional pressure on businesses to navigate a more demanding regulatory framework.
Geopolitical risks present a gap, with 63 per cent of companies acknowledging the risks posed by international conflicts; however, 19 per cent conduct regular assessments in this area. The discrepancy leaves many businesses vulnerable to unexpected disruptions due to global tensions and conflicts.
Supply chain vulnerabilities are another major issue, with 63 per cent of respondents ranking disruptions in logistics and transportation as a top risk. With the added strain of geopolitical tensions and natural disasters, companies are under pressure to build resilience and safeguard against supply chain breakdowns.
Consumer behaviour shifts are a growing concern, with 51 per cent of businesses noting the impact of demographic changes and the rising demand for sustainable, digital-first solutions. To remain competitive, companies must rapidly adjust to these evolving consumer expectations.
Lastly, financial instability, driven by economic downturns, rising interest rates and inflation, worries 48 per cent of businesses. The has prompted companies to intensify their focus on liquidity and develop stronger risk management strategies to withstand economic volatility.
The report introduces the Impact-Probability-Control (IPC) Framework, a structured approach for evaluating and addressing emerging risks. The methodology enables businesses to prioritise risks by assessing their potential impact, the likelihood of occurrence and the effectiveness of existing control measures, offering decision-makers a practical tool for targeted risk mitigation.
Sushant Sarin, President - Commercial Business, Tata AIG General Insurance stated, “At Tata AIG, we understand that in today’s rapidly evolving global landscape, managing emerging risks is crucial to the sustainability and growth of any organisation. Our aim is to empower organisations to anticipate emerging challenges, mitigate risks, and ensure business continuity, enabling them to thrive in an increasingly complex world. This report provides a comprehensive framework to help businesses identify and address risks, fostering resilience and enabling long-term growth."
Avinash Gupta, Managing Director of Dun & Bradstreet India added, “Businesses today face unprecedented challenges in a rapidly changing landscape marked by geopolitical tensions, climate crises, and technological threats. The Tata AIG - Dun & Bradstreet Horizon Watch Report serves as a vital tool for organisations, offering insights through our 'Impact-Probability-Control' framework. By identifying emerging risks and their implications, we empower businesses to navigate uncertainty with confidence, ensuring resilience in a world where adaptability is key to survival.”
In today’s unpredictable business environment, companies must navigate risks spanning political, technological, environmental, economic and competitive pressures. As stable risk landscapes become less common, resilience is crucial for overcoming these challenges. Emerging risks are categorised into four types - Known Knowns (predictable risks), Known Unknowns (risks with uncertain timing), Unknown Knowns (unclear impacts from familiar areas) and Unknown Unknowns (unanticipated risks). According to the report, 60 per cent of businesses actively manage Unknown Knowns, 43 per cent address Known Unknowns and 47 per cent acknowledge the presence of Unknown Unknowns but feel underprepared. Notably, 53 per cent of companies overlook these unpredictable threats, emphasising the need for robust risk management strategies.
